On August 16 the Japanese Cabinet Office announced that Japan's second-quarter GDP was for the first time smaller than China's. A media frenzy ensued, and analysis firms raced to predict when China would surpass the U.S.

When the first quarter ended, many analysts projected the subsequent months would bring even stronger gains in Gross Domestic Product. But the high hopes of economy watchers for acceleration in growth were dashed by reality when the U.S.

A cynic might say that information systems consultants shortchange their clients. They can, for example, promise more than they deliver. Or they can tarry and delay. Or they might ask, on the back end, to bill for "unanticipated" work.

More state labor markets are pulling out of the economic slump created by the recession. As recently as March of this year, only two states (North Dakota and Alaska) were adding nonfarm jobs year-over-year. By May, the number of states posting year-to-year growth had improved to an even dozen.

The team from the Department of Information Systems that created decision-support software to help distribute crucial H1N1 vaccine knew that for this project, speed trumped all other protocols.

Optimism about the strength of the recovery took another hit when the June employment numbers were released recently. Economy-watchers had expected at least modest growth, but seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment fell by 125,000 jobs from May.

As the calendar approaches the mid-year mark, the economy through the first half appears on track to exceed earlier expectations, thanks to increased spending by consumers and the willingness of businesses to build inventories and invest in new equipment and software.

With four months of figures for 2010 now available, analysts are beginning to grow (slightly) more optimistic about the employment picture for the nation and the Western states this year.

How confident are you that you understand background facts on economic issues? For the fourth year running, members of the Economic Club of Phoenix were quizzed on their grasp of economic fundamentals at their final luncheon of the season, on May 18.

Arizona employment bottomed out at the end of 2009, after a loss of nearly 300,000 jobs from the peak during 2007. But have we seen the end of the recession? Maybe not, if we are going to evaluate this current cycle in a longer term context, based on annual data.