What does the trough of a real estate slump look like? Phoenix metro area property owners will have time to take a close look at this unpleasant and hazardous landscape as the real estate market slides to the bottom over the next several months — and settles in for a slow, volatile recovery.

From seasoned real estate writer Steve Bergsman comes this message: Proceed with caution, be patient and realize that there are many kinds of real estate markets — each with particular potentials and pitfalls.

Sales data from March indicate that a trend change in housing prices might be underway in the beleaguered Phoenix metro market.

An anemic economic recovery will begin at the end of the year, but don't expect the pain to end anytime soon.

Phoenix metro real estate prices declined 37 percent in February compared to February 2008, but preliminary data for March and April show that the rate of decline may be slowing.

Arizona real estate markets tend to swing wildly. During boom periods, home prices accelerate precipitously, but when the bubble bursts, residential values sometimes slink all the way back to the price level at the start of cyclical upturn.

The 13 economists who track the real estate construction industry for the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip Economic Forecast are projecting that the metro area's residential market will bottom out in 2009, however down times will continue on for the multi family and commercial sector.

Malaise in the economy is slowing down the arrival of relief for Phoenix real estate and lengthening what is already a record-breaking run of declining prices, according to an analysis of the Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI).

Although nonresidential building held up longer than residential activity in the current recession, the nonresidential downturn now has started and is expected to continue into 2010. The timing of the rise and fall of these two construction categories differs.

Real estate expert and finance Professor Karl Guntermann has been predicting for a long time that the decline in Phoenix area home prices would probably bottom out by the end of 2008.